COVID-19 , Poker & the Zero-Sum game
Ever played poker? It’s a game where you have winners and losers. You put your chips on the table, and if you win- it means that other people at the table have lost. Our strategy for COVID-19 acts pretty much the same way.
You can’t have a win/win scenario in poker because of the way the game is designed. In economic and game theory we call this a zero-sum game. Anytime you have a zero-sum game, there is no half-measure, no compromise, and no way that “everybody wins”. If you all have chips, it means that someone else has lost everything they brought to the table.
That’s what we are looking at with the COVID-19 response. Countries are putting people on lockdown because the virus either spreads or it doesn’t. And if it does spread, everyone loses- not just the people who get sick. One person’s gain (freedom) is another person’s loss (safety).
America is in turmoil right now because people want the freedom to choose for themselves, but the freedom of choice- in this scenario means that it is done at the expense of others. Either you keep a lockdown and stop the virus or you don’t. If you can stop the virus, then everyone wins, and if you let people “make their own choice” people will take risks and invariably lose.
We are no longer talking about winners and losers in the context of the elderly or immunocompromised. We’re talking about society as a whole, because the longer this drags on- the worse it is for economies and society at large.
If you calculate your likelihood to die, and even if you find it low or are willing to take the risk, it can’t be done without calculating the exponential growth of the virus, the number of other people who will die because of your choices, the devastating effect on the economy and the magnitude of letting COVID-19 circulate through society uncontrolled.
The Chinese response worked because they took the zero-sum game seriously. They were unified in their lockdown, they didn’t ease up until it was basically gone and the strategy worked. But their culture and experience with previous viruses makes this kind of sacrifice for the greater good a “pill” that is easier to swallow.
American’s are individualists, it’s part of the cultural DNA. Trying to convince them to make a personal sacrifice for the greater good is proving to be an incredible challenge which sadly, they will all pay for in the end.
Because the final stage of the game is that there is a winner and a loser. And while individuals are playing this game with their health and others, they are underestimating their opponent because, in this deadly game, COVID-19 is holding all the cards.
from Poker
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