Why I Don’t Play NFBC… But Maybe You Should!
Why I Don’t Play NFBC… But Maybe You Should!
The National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) is the gold standard of public leagues. The Main Event is reminiscent of the World Series of Poker. Anybody (in participating states) can join for a whopping $1,700 buy-in. Unless you’re a sharp or have disposable income out the bum(garner), you should be prepared to lose your buy-in. Competition is fierce.
NFBC is typically associated with 15-team snake draft leagues with a weekly FAAB process. They have a host of other formats with price points as low as $50 per entry. Their $150 Draft Champions format is basically a baby version of the Main Event. Many of the most serious competitors will play a handful of Draft Champions leagues as mock drafts for the Main Event.
Presently, there is a roaring discussion on Twitter. The action started with a tweet in response to a perceived snobbishness among those who play NFBC.
I know I may ruffle feathers here, but just because people don’t play in NFBC leagues doesn’t mean they aren’t very very good fantasy players. The narrative out there bugs me at times
— KC Bubba (@bdentrek) January 19, 2020
Among fantasy platforms, there’s no question that NFBC has cultivated the most competitive garden. When you join one of their leagues – even the cheap ones – you can expect a certain degree of quality. Try joining a public league on Yahoo*… Yeesh.
*When I was 14, I made a 20-team, 10×10 public league on Yahoo. I romped to an easy win with the help of 700 waiver moves. Yep, that’s some high quality shit.
This is not to say NFBC is better than your league. It might be. It might not. Every individual league stands on its own merits. Moreover, there are many formats NFBC doesn’t even pretend to support – for example, anything keeper or dynasty-like. Or if you prefer daily touches, NFBC’s weekly and best ball formats might not be your cup of tea. Now we’re touching upon the heart of why I don’t play NFBC. My response to KC Bubba:
I don't play NFBC. I happen to think my record elsewhere is pretty good. Main reasons:
1. It's too expensive
2. Incentivizes writers to hold back their best plays
3. Weekly leagues are booooooooooooring
4. I don't play on Sundays (FAAB day) https://t.co/ckOaIEmrk4— Brad Johnson (@BaseballATeam) January 20, 2020
It’s really excuse #4 and hidden answer #5 (an elaboration on #3) which prevent me from playing. I don’t like the math of #1, but I need no help to justify lighting money on fire for fantasy baseball. As for #2, it’s only a concern in theory. Jeff Zimmerman wrote last winter how his participation has subtly shaped the information he provides. I like writing whatsoever comes to mind.
Back to #4. As part of the great Unspoken Domestic Peace Treaty of 2016, I ceased nearly all fantasy activity on Sundays. Especially articles but also any team management which involves substantial research. I’ll still make sure my lineups are full of actives and make any important start/sit calls in head-to-head, but this typically requires only about 15 seconds per roster. Occasionally, there are emergencies to address. Adding a FAAB process from high stakes leagues would upset the treaty.
Honestly, this alone could be overcome peaceably enough if I was sufficiently motivated. The problem is, I really don’t like weekly redraft leagues. I can’t focus. Weekly works fine for me in deep dynasty where it can be a challenge to find enough players to fill a starting lineup. The weekly dynasty leagues I’m in also have instant waivers rather than FAAB. I prefer a league with daily touches. FAAB is fine, but it should process every day.
If you follow my writing closely, you’ll notice there are two broad topics I go back to over and over again – dynasty and daily fantasy (DFS). NFBC lives somewhere in the middlelands. I’m a coastal guy. I need a beach within driving distance.
About the Money
My first point elicited some interesting debate. Let’s ignore the lower cost entry points for a moment. Although it’s possible to play for $50 or $150, it’s usually understood we’re referring to the $1,700 Main Event when we evoke the name of NFBC.
As Ariel Cohen pointed out, if you’re sufficiently talented, the entry fee is an investment rather than a cost. Over the long term, you’ll make money. To my mind, there are some issues with this line of thought. Sufficient talent is opaque and requires accurate self-assessment. We know the standard is higher in NFBC. How much better than average do you need to be in order to win?
Jeff Zimmerman pointed out the vig* on NFBC is over 10 percent. Woof. NFBC reports your winnings to the tax man who promptly lops off a good 30 percent or so. To win over the long term, not only do you need to be much better than the average NFBC participant, you have to outperform these secondary costs too.
*The vig or vigorish is the cut the house takes in a game of chance.
Even if you have the talent to overcome these hurdles, there’s still the matter of maintaining your bankroll. Let’s say you’re in the top five percent of players on NFBC. You still can’t expect to cash in your first year. In addition to the blind luck of the game, there are going to be some quirks to the format you didn’t appropriately optimize.
Let’s ignore the secondary barriers for a moment and apply some back of the envelope math. If 15 percent of entries cash and you have a 20% chance to cash, the odds seem favorable long term. You’re still sitting on only a one-in-five chance in a given year. Over 15 entries, you expect to cash roughly zero to six times with a long tail towards more positive outcomes. Some of those long tail outcomes include a high score in the overall standings which would serve to furnish a lifelong bankroll. A little under three-sevenths of those results have you losing money over the long term. If you’re running one entry a year, we’ve just modeled 15 years of work!
And before you start throwing your money after the overall leaderboard, have you played many DFS GPPs? The Main Event is essentially a season-long GPP. Of all those 10,000+ entry games you’ve played, how often do you finish Top 10? If you’re very good, maybe 1-in-900 entries? By all means, dream about a winning the overall leaderboard. Just don’t forget it’s a very slightly skilled lottery.
In college, my friends and I all played online poker. We used the same reasoning about long term investments. I can play 200 hands of poker in about 20 minutes on my laptop. In a casino, it might take me five or six hours to complete the same number of hands. The long term happens fast in poker. In fantasy baseball, the long term is your life’s work.
I realized something funny while I was playing online poker in college. I consistently made money. Great! Right? When I had a sample of tens of thousands of hands, I divided my winnings by my time invested. I realized I was making around $3 per hour. I immediately stopped playing online (it was never fun for me).
Personally, I suspect I might wind up with a similar return on time invested if I played NFBC. That’s almost exactly where my DFS play has settled – except I love playing DFS. I’d gladly pay $500 a year just to play. Incidentally, my bankroll management is designed such that a worst case scenario year will cost me about $500.
The point, I guess, is that in my opinion fantasy sports aren’t an investment. They’re an entertainment in which you might just happen to not lose money. Similarly, it’s my opinion that anybody who tells you otherwise is fooling themselves. Or they’re a savant.
Parting Thoughts
I didn’t intend to say so much about the money. It just kind of happened. And, well, I think they’re points worth making. I think some people unwittingly sell their serendipitous results as if they were destiny and not… serendipity. I know how hard I have to work for my money, and I just want to be sure nobody rushes into a foolish financial decision.
In any event, the reasons I don’t play NFBC might be the very same ones for why you should play. We know the draft experience is one of the best out there. The leagues are always stuffed with quality competition. You don’t have to fuss with trades or races to the waiver wire. Instead, spend your weekend obsessing over the perfect FAAB bids. So what if it’s a little expensive to play the Main Event? For some people, $1,700 is a drop in the bucket. Most fantasy participants can afford a $150 Draft Champions league.
Ultimately, I applaud NFBC for building the gold standard of fantasy baseball. It’s just not for me.
You can follow me on twitter @BaseballATeam
from Online Poker
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